The Geopolitics of the Africa-Atlantic Pipeline and the Western Sahara Conflict

• The Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) project faces significant legal and political challenges due to its route passing through occupied Western Sahara.
• The European Union is actively seeking energy diversification to reduce dependency on Russian gas by strengthening ties with African suppliers.
• The Polisario Front has declared it will challenge the project in court, citing illegal resource exploitation in occupied territories.

The Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) Project

• Targeted for completion in 2031, it will be the second-longest pipeline globally, spanning 6,900 kilometers.
• The route begins in Nigeria and travels along the African coast to Spain, with an annual capacity of 30 billion cubic meters.
• Estimated cost is $25 billion, funded by the UAE, the Islamic Development Bank, the OPEC Fund for International Development, and the European Investment Bank.

Geopolitical Tensions and Strategic Interests

• Morocco's Strategy: By routing the pipeline through Dakhla in Western Sahara, Morocco aims to solidify its control and attract support from Sahelian countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• The Competitor: The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) offers a shorter 4,128km route through Niger and Algeria to Italy and Spain, though it faces construction hurdles.
• Regional Instability: Tensions between Algeria and Morocco remain high, with Algeria accusing Rabat of espionage and destabilization, complicating energy cooperation.

Legal and Political Implications

• The Polisario Front's Position: Spokesman Salamu Hamudi argues that Morocco lacks the authority to develop resources in Western Sahara without consent from the Sahrawi people, citing European Court of Justice (ECJ) rulings.
• Western Alignment: The U.S., France, and other Western powers are increasingly aligning with Morocco’s autonomy plan, viewing it as a strategic military and energy partner.
• Internal Criticism: Nigerian energy expert Dan Kunle has questioned the project's viability, citing the risks of coordinating across many jurisdictions and the potential neglect of domestic energy needs in Nigeria.