Iran: The Politics of War and Internal Crisis

• Renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. has brought the June ceasefire to the brink of collapse.
• The Iranian government is leveraging the external threat of war to justify domestic repression and maintain political control.
• Despite state efforts to suppress dissent, labor protests over unpaid wages and poor working conditions persist, highlighting the government's inability to address internal crises.

The Failure of the Ceasefire

• The 14-point agreement in June aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow 60 days for negotiations, but lacked clarity on control of the strait.
• Tehran interpreted the deal as recognition of its authority, while Washington and Gulf states viewed it only as a guarantee of free passage, leading to renewed military tensions.

Domestic Repression as National Security

• Since attacks began on February 28, Iranian authorities have reclassified political dissent, journalism, and human rights work as "collaboration with the enemy."
• Over 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, and lawyers, have been arrested; internet access remains heavily restricted to stifle the dissemination of protest information.

Labor Unrest and Socio-Economic Hardship

• In July, municipal workers in Minab, oil sector employees, steel workers, and telecom retirees engaged in strikes over unpaid salaries and canceled insurance.
• On July 13, healthcare workers in Yazd, Shiraz, and Neyshabur joined protests against low pay and systematic payment delays.

The Economic Cost of War

• Annual inflation reached 62% in June, with year-over-year inflation at 88.6%, disproportionately affecting low-income households.
• The government distributes the economic burden unevenly, prioritizing resources for networks linked to the security and political apparatus while laborers face deteriorating public services and wage erosion.

Implications

• While the war provides the regime with a temporary sense of unified threat and excuses to consolidate power, it fails to resolve the underlying divide between the state and its citizens.
• The state relies on emergency powers to survive, but the rising costs of maintaining this status quo demonstrate that the government has not restored social consensus or addressed the populace's basic needs.