South Korea’s population is set to shrink: What would it take to stop the decline?

• South Korea's population is projected to decline from 52 million in 2026 to 22 million by 2100, resulting in a significantly older age structure.
• Stabilizing the population would require extreme, likely implausible, adjustments to fertility, life expectancy, or migration.
• Analysis using population modeling suggests that preventing this decline through any single demographic lever is highly unlikely.

Potential Scenarios for Population Stabilization

• Fertility Rates: To maintain current levels, the fertility rate would need to rise to 2.1 children per woman by 2050 and stay at that level. While historically precedented, this represents a massive reversal of the current trend (0.7 births per woman).
• Life Expectancy: Stabilization would require average life expectancy to increase to 130 years by 2050. This is physically unrealistic, requiring a rate of health improvement nearly 50 times faster than current global leaders, and would result in an elderly-dominated society where retirees vastly outnumber working-age individuals.
• Net Migration: Maintaining population size would require a net migration rate of 0.9% (9 immigrants per 1,000 people annually). This is seven times the current rate and would be difficult to sustain for over 70 years, especially as other nations face similar demographic shrinkage.

Implications

• The study highlights that the scale of changes needed to counteract South Korea's population collapse is beyond reasonable expectation.
• Even if population size were stabilized, the aging structure presents significant economic and social challenges, such as a high dependency ratio where retirees significantly outnumber the working-age population.