The Rise of Electoral Democracy: Two Centuries of Progress and Setbacks

• While half of the world's population currently lives under democratic rule, the last decade has seen a notable democratic backsliding.
• Electoral democracy relies on three pillars: the existence of elections, the expansion of voting rights, and genuine political competition.
• From being nearly nonexistent in the 18th century, electoral democracies reached a peak in 2015, with 117 countries meeting all criteria by 2025.

The Spread of Elections

• In the late 18th century, leaders were typically chosen by inheritance or force; today, elected parliaments and governments are the global norm.
• Elections became the predominant way of selecting leaders in the second half of the 20th century.
• Recent stability has been challenged; the number of countries with elected parliaments and governments fell from a high of 176 in 2016 to 165 in 2025 due to coups and civil conflicts in nations like Sudan and Niger.

The Expansion of Voting Rights

• Two centuries ago, voting was a narrow privilege based on land ownership, gender, or race.
• New Zealand established universal suffrage in 1893, setting a precedent that spread rapidly following World War II.
• By the end of the Cold War, nearly 150 countries had established universal voting rights, though recent anti-democratic shifts have impacted these figures.

The Rise of Competitive Elections

• Elections are only effective if they allow for meaningful accountability; however, some regimes maintain the facade of elections while stifling opposition.
• Genuine competition has increased, with 111 out of 199 countries experiencing a recent electoral turnover (change in government) by 2025.
• Turnover serves as a proxy for competition, though it remains imperfect; for example, Japan's long-term dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party reflects party popularity rather than an absence of democratic processes.

Global Demographic Impact

• The number of people living in democracies has tripled since 1965, rising to approximately 4 billion today.
• Despite this progress, the global population is split almost evenly between those living in democracies and those who do not.
• Backsliding in countries like Myanmar, Nigeria, and Turkey has resulted in roughly 400 million fewer people living under democratic systems than a decade ago.
• History shows that democratic rights are not guaranteed and have been built through decades of incremental, often difficult, progress.