Ethiopia at the Brink: The Fragility of the Tigray Peace Accord

• The 2022 Pretoria Peace Accord in Ethiopia is failing, with Tigray on the brink of renewed conflict due to unresolved structural issues.
• Deepening divisions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and power struggles with the federal government have rendered the ceasefire increasingly fragile.
• Widespread instability is compounded by insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromiya regions, creating a volatile environment across the country.

Escalating Tensions in Tigray

• Implementation of the Pretoria Accord has stalled, leaving disputes over territory, combatant reintegration, and transitional justice unaddressed.
• Internal splits within the TPLF led to the formation of the 'Tigray Democratic Solidarity' (Simret), challenging the party's historical political monopoly.
• In April 2026, the federal government's unilateral extension of the Tigray Regional Interim Administration (ARI) mandate triggered a collapse in cooperation; by May, the TPLF seized direct political control under Debretsion Gebremichael.
• The U.S. has imposed visa restrictions on key actors in response to the escalating risk of renewed fighting.

Electoral Disruptions and National Violence

• The June 1 general election saw Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party win 438 of 501 seats, but the vote was marred by an inability to poll in Tigray and parts of Amhara due to violence and state absence.
• Amhara: The Fano militia intensified operations, conducting coordinated sabotage during the election, with approximately 90 armed clashes recorded on polling day alone.
• Oromiya: The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continues to destabilize the region, attacking government forces and targeting Orthodox Christian communities in the Arsi zone.

Implications

• The accumulation of these insurgencies and the defiance of the TPLF create a highly fragmented political landscape.
• Persistent tensions with Eritrea and the inability of the federal government to impose order suggest a high risk of generalized instability across the Horn of Africa.