Escalating Conflict in Ethiopia as 2022 Peace Deal Collapses

• Renewed fighting between federal government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.
• Over 150,000 people have been forcibly displaced as violence spreads across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions.

Military Developments

• TPLF forces seized three airports in late September, labeling their actions a "defensive war," while federal forces launched counter-attacks.
• Fighting has expanded into the Amhara region, where federal troops are simultaneously battling the Fano nationalist militia, and into Afar.
• Both sides are utilizing drones, with analysts noting that drone strikes have extended the theater of operations beyond traditional frontlines, putting strategic assets like the Harar Meda airbase at risk.

Evolving Alliances

• A new coalition, the Alliance of the Peoples of Ethiopia for Survival, has formed, bringing together previously warring groups—including Tigrayan, Amhara, and Oromo factions—to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
• The central government faces a multi-front conflict, exacerbated by deteriorating relations with neighboring Eritrea and internal divisions within the TPLF leadership.
• Analysts attribute the collapse of the peace process to Abiy’s centralized power moves and the perceived failure of the Pretoria agreement to resolve underlying structural grievances.

Humanitarian and Diplomatic Impact

• Hospitals in Korem, Alamata, and Shire report a sharp surge in civilian and combatant casualties.
• The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) successfully evacuated 161 people, including aid workers and civil servants, from Mekelle to Semera.
• Despite international calls for a return to the Pretoria framework from the US, UK, and European governments, observers warn that the current conflict is perceived as an existential, zero-sum struggle, making a swift return to peace negotiations highly unlikely.