Which Countries Have Passed Peak Population and Future Trends

• As of 2026, 64 countries and territories have already passed their population peak and entered structural decline.
• This decline is driven by falling birth rates, representing a unique demographic shift rather than a temporary shock from war or famine.
• Population projections are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration.

Countries Beyond the Peak

• The majority of nations that have passed their peak are in Europe and East Asia, regions marked by rapid and persistent fertility decline.
• Eastern European nations are experiencing accelerated decline due to the combination of low birth rates and significant emigration.
• Notable cases outside these regions include Thailand (fertility rate below 1.2) and Uruguay (1.4).
• Countries like Japan and Italy have been in a post-peak state for over a decade.

Future Demographic Outlook

• Many more nations are projected to peak in the coming decades, including much of South America by the 2050s and South Asia—including India—by the 2060s.
• UN medium-variant projections suggest significant long-term shrinkage: South Korea and China could see populations halve, while Italy could shrink by over 40% and Spain and Thailand by a third.

The Role of Migration

• Migration is a critical factor; many high-income nations rely on immigration to maintain current population levels.
• The United States serves as a prime example: while it is not expected to peak this century under current projections, assuming zero migration would trigger an early peak and a 130-million-person difference by 2100.
• For countries with steep, entrenched declines like South Korea, reversing the trend through policy interventions regarding fertility or migration is considered statistically implausible.