The End of the Center: Geopolitics of a Changing Era
Pressenza
- The international system is undergoing a fundamental transformation, shifting from a West-centric unipolar order to a polycentric reality characterized by Asia's rising economic, technological, and logistical influence.
- Contemporary strategic concepts, often rooted in Cold War dynamics, struggle to explain today's complex, interconnected global landscape.
- The research emphasizes "connectivity" and "circulation" as the primary stakes of 21st-century power, rather than just territorial control.
The Shift in Global Power
- China is advancing as a "civilization-state" using long-term, multi-decade planning for infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and industrial capacity.
- Western hegemony faces a legitimacy crisis, partly due to the inability of 1945-era institutions to halt documented human rights violations, such as the situation in Gaza.
- Geopolitical influence is increasingly determined by control over critical infrastructure like ports, railways, submarine cables, and semiconductors.
The Political Economy of Fear
- European defense and security policy is being reorganized around "permanent preparation," with NATO members aiming for 5% GDP military spending.
- The analysis argues that when national security is treated as a financial asset, managed insecurity becomes a profitable enterprise, potentially prolonging conflicts.
Infrastructure and Intelligence
- The semiconductor and AI chip industry has become the primary site of technological conflict, shifting from free-market competition to "weaponized interdependence."
- China focuses on the massive, state-directed scaling of AI integration across society and education, countering attempts at containment through rapid domestic redundancy.
Institutional and Legal Crisis
- Documentation of the Gaza genocide by UN special rapporteurs exists alongside institutional paralysis, highlighting a deep disconnect between legal findings and effective intervention.
- Recent conflicts in Iran and Ukraine illustrate that military force alone frequently fails to achieve political objectives, often leaving belligerents in deadlocked, costly stalemates.