2035: The Future of Global Power and Geopolitical Competition
Pressenza
- Current geopolitical tensions are at their highest level since WWII, driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Iran conflict, and US-China rivalry.
- Power by 2035 will be defined not just by military force, but by leadership in AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, and resource control.
- Interdependence means regional conflicts now disrupt global supply chains, energy markets, and alliances.
Global Power Dynamics
- United States: Retains military, financial, and technological superiority, but faces limits in capacity to manage multiple global crises simultaneously.
- Russia: Despite Western sanctions, it remains a central power due to its nuclear arsenal, vast natural resources, and deepened ties with China, Iran, and the BRICS.
- China: Has evolved into a global center of gravity by combining manufacturing dominance with aggressive infrastructure, tech, and financial expansion across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
- European Union: Pivoting from a trade-focused bloc to a security-conscious entity, significantly increasing defense spending and striving for technological autonomy.
- India: Adopting a strategy of "strategic autonomy," maintaining flexible partnerships with both the West and BRICS while positioning itself as a future global arbiter.
Emerging Strategic Risks
- Middle East Flashpoint: The Israel-Iran confrontation, alongside Pakistan's role, creates a high-stakes arena where escalation could jeopardize global energy security and maritime trade routes.
- Resource Competition: Africa and South America are becoming crucial theaters for the scramble for lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth minerals.
Long-Term Outlook
- 2035 Governance: The international system is trending toward multipolarity where technological and economic competition may partially replace kinetic warfare.
- Sustainability: The core challenge for future leadership is balancing the protection of national interests with preventing total systemic instability that could leave the world in ashes.