Amazon Rainforest Faces Prolonged Fire Season Driven by El Niño

• The Amazon rainforest has entered a severe, long-term fire season exacerbated by an intense El Niño-linked drought.
• Satellite data from NASA's FIRMS and VIIRS indicate significant fire activity, particularly around the cities of Manaus and Santarém.
• Heavy smoke has led to hazardous air quality in Manaus, forcing the closure of schools and cancellation of public events.

Scientific Context and Patterns

• Earth system scientist Douglas Morton describes the current situation as part of a recurring tropical fire "cascade" triggered by El Niño.
• The pattern begins with fires in Indonesia, followed by elevated activity in the Amazon; researchers observed similar trends during the 2015-2016 and 2023 El Niño events.
• Future fire waves are expected to move northward toward Roraima, northern Pará, Amapá, Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname in late 2026, peaking in southern Amazon regions by late 2027.

Fire Dynamics and Detection

• Nearly all fires are human-ignited, often beginning as agricultural management burns that escape control in parched forest understories.
• Rainfall in Manaus was significantly below normal in August (95% less) and September (60% less).
• Traditional satellite detection methods often undercount fires due to smoke, cloud cover, and dense canopy; researchers are using additional VIIRS data to identify "candidate fires" that missed detection thresholds.
• Recurring fires are causing cumulative ecological degradation, as previously charred forests become increasingly susceptible to subsequent burning.