The Political Economy of Brazil's Shifting Right

• Brazil's presidential election headed to a runoff after far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 47% to 45% in the first round.
• Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) has solidified its dominance in Congress, signaling a structural consolidation of the Right.
• The election reflects the emergence of a "racket society," where political power, organized crime, and predatory financial interests converge.

The Persistence of Bolsonarismo

• Despite the imprisonment of Jair Bolsonaro for coup-plotting, the family brand remains potent, with Flávio serving as the proxy candidate.
• Bolsonarismo has successfully captured evangelical demographics, the rural agricultural lobby, and sectors of the precarious economy—such as online betting and gig-work.
• The Right has benefited from a Gramscian shift in political "common sense," framing anti-PT sentiment as a critique of systemic corruption.

Economic Predation and Deindustrialization

• Brazil’s political economy has shifted away from developmentalism toward extraction and rent-seeking, characterized by financial scams and gig-economy exploitation.
• Elites have increasingly decoupled from a national development project, often parking wealth in the US, which aligns their interests with US-backed right-wing actors.
• The destruction of industrial sectors during the Lava Jato investigations left a power vacuum filled by extractive interests linked to illegal mining and paramilitaries.

Security Slop and Political Subjectivity

• The Right’s "tough-on-crime" rhetoric functions as "security slop"—performative, empty policy promises that coexist with actual ties to criminal factions and militias.
• Anti-corruption politics has become a metanarrative for social grievances, projected onto the Workers' Party (PT) to channel status anxiety among the middle class.
• For the Left, success in this hyper-individualized, influencer-driven landscape requires moving beyond nostalgia, venturing into unfriendly digital spaces, and addressing the lived realities of organized crime in working-class neighborhoods.