Armenia: A pro-European shift under scrutiny

• Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government is distancing Armenia from its traditional alliance with Moscow in favor of closer ties with the European Union, leading to internal concerns regarding authoritarianism and political repression.
• The June 7, 2024, elections saw the victory of Pashinyan's 'Civil Contract' party amid allegations of vote-buying and structural unfairness.
• While the EU celebrates Armenia's geopolitical pivot and offers financial aid, critics argue Brussels is overlooking democratic backsliding.

Electoral Controversy and Political Repression

• The OSCE noted lack of transparency and pressure on public servants to attend pro-government campaign events.
• The state-controlled Central Election Commission (CEC) nullified results in specific polling stations, pushing the opposition 'Prosperous Armenia' party below the 4% threshold for parliament, allowing the ruling party to secure a 60% supermajority.
• Key opposition figures, including Samvel Paraketian, Robert Kocharian, and Gagik Tsarukyan, have faced arrest.
• The Armenian Orthodox Church, led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and his 'Sacred Struggle' movement, remains in direct opposition to the government.

Geopolitical Context

• Armenia’s pivot followed Russia’s inaction during the 2023 ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, which was perceived in Yerevan as a betrayal.
• The EU has committed €270 million in aid, while providing additional support to mitigate Russia's retaliatory ban on Armenian agricultural imports.

Future Challenges

• Analysts warn that Armenia's high dependence on Russian energy—specifically gas, which accounts for 80% of consumption—limits how far the country can realistically integrate with the EU.
• Observers suggest that the government's crackdown on dissent is moving the country toward a 'slow path to authoritarianism,' while its room for maneuver between Moscow and Brussels continues to shrink.