Nearly Half of Poles Now Oppose Arming Ukraine

• A Rzeczpospolita survey indicates that 45.2% of Polish citizens now oppose providing further military aid to Ukraine.
• This figure represents a significant increase from 18.3% in December 2022, largely driven by ongoing tensions regarding historical interpretations of the Volhynia Genocide.
• Shifting public sentiment is influencing internal party politics, with conservative and populist groups increasingly adopting more restrictive stances on aid.

Historical Tensions and Aid

• The decline in support is primarily attributed to public disapproval of the Ukrainian government's glorification of the OUN-UPA, the perpetrators of the Volhynia Genocide.
• Criticism is growing over the failure of past administrations to condition military aid on historical recognition, such as the exhumation of victims and the rejection of Banderism.
• Data from the Polish Defense Ministry shows that the former Law & Justice (PiS) government provided approximately €3.4 billion in military equipment between 2022 and 2023.
• By early 2025, total Polish support for Ukraine, including humanitarian aid for refugees, had reached 4.91% of the country's GDP.

Political Implications

• The populist Confederation party has gained popularity by consistently calling for conditional aid that specifically advances Polish interests.
• Internal divisions within the PiS party, involving Jarosław Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki, may cause disgruntled supporters to shift toward the Confederation.
• Current polling suggests that the combined support for Confederation and its affiliates could surpass that of PiS, potentially making them the senior partner in a future coalition after the 2027 Sejm elections.
• A shift in political power could lead to substantial changes in Polish foreign policy regarding its support for Ukraine, which some now characterize as a regional rival.