Loyalty without leverage: India’s US tilt yields little

• The United States has downgraded its strategic focus on India by reverting the "Indo-Pacific Command" back to the "US Pacific Command" (USPACOM), effectively repositioning the Indian Ocean as a secondary theater.
• Despite this administrative and symbolic downgrade, India continues to pursue a closer strategic alignment with Washington.
• India has incurred significant costs to satisfy US demands, including sacrificing energy security, abandoning infrastructure projects like INSTEC, and committing to $500 billion in US re-industrialization investments.
• Washington’s recent diplomatic shifts, including renewed engagement with Pakistan and the pursuit of a "constructive strategic stability" with China, suggest that India’s perceived utility to the US remains limited.

Strategic Realignment

• The US has reprioritized the Pacific region as the central theater for its geopolitical strategy, focusing on critical flashpoints near China and Russia.
• The restructuring reflects a move to manage US-China relations while maintaining the "co-dependency" of Asian allies against Beijing.

Economic and Diplomatic Costs for India

• Energy: Under US pressure, India ceased oil imports from Iran in 2019 and restricted Russian oil purchases, negatively impacting its own energy security.
• Infrastructure: India de-prioritized the International Strategic Economic Transport Corridor (INSTEC) in favor of the stalled India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
• Financial: India pledged $500 billion toward US re-industrialization.

Geopolitical Setbacks

• Middle East: India’s attempt to align with Israel and the US has left it marginalized as Saudi Arabia and the UAE pursue rapprochement with Iran and China gains influence in regional reconstruction.
• Pakistan: Washington has strengthened ties with the Pakistani military and endorsed the Pakistan-Saudi Defense Partnership, undermining India’s long-term goal of isolating Pakistan.
• Global Standing: India’s perceived alignment with controversial US and Israeli policies has weakened its influence within the Global South and with Arab nations.