360info · May 3, 2026

US Military Bases and the Gulf States’ Sovereignty Dilemma

Ongoing Iran-US-Israel hostilities have led to direct strikes on American military bases in the Gulf, severely damaging surveillance infrastructure and rendering 13 facilities across West Asia largely uninhabitable.
Host nations now face critical dilemmas regarding international law, specifically concerning "complicity" under Article 16 of the Articles on State Responsibility (ARSIWA) if they permit their territory to be used for potentially illegal offensive operations.
Spain and Italy have already refused the use of their territory for US operations, sparking tensions as the US allegedly resorts to economic coercion, which risks violating principles of non-intervention.

The conflict has forced a re-evaluation of Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs), which typically provide logistical access but do not grant an automatic mandate for third-party offensive strikes.
Host nations incur substantial risks: providing material support for operations that result in civilian casualties or violations of international humanitarian law can leave the host state liable for international wrongdoing.
Adversaries like Iran have signaled that host nation territory is considered a legitimate military target, regardless of international legal technicalities.

The traditional client-patron relationship is under stress as Gulf states recognize that hosting US bases may "import" conflict rather than provide security.
Expected trends in the region include:
- A shift toward more transactional security ties, with states demanding explicit, formal treaties.
- Hedging strategies involving diversified partnerships, such as deepening ties with China or seeking de-escalation with Iran.
- A more fragmented and militarized regional landscape where US influence becomes conditional and increasingly costly.

360info · May 3, 2026

Ongoing Iran-US-Israel hostilities have led to direct strikes on American military bases in the Gulf, severely damaging surveillance infrastructure and rendering 13 facilities across West Asia largely uninhabitable.
Host nations now face critical dilemmas regarding international law, specifically concerning "complicity" under Article 16 of the Articles on State Responsibility (ARSIWA) if they permit their territory to be used for potentially illegal offensive operations.
Spain and Italy have already refused the use of their territory for US operations, sparking tensions as the US allegedly resorts to economic coercion, which risks violating principles of non-intervention.

The conflict has forced a re-evaluation of Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs), which typically provide logistical access but do not grant an automatic mandate for third-party offensive strikes.
Host nations incur substantial risks: providing material support for operations that result in civilian casualties or violations of international humanitarian law can leave the host state liable for international wrongdoing.
Adversaries like Iran have signaled that host nation territory is considered a legitimate military target, regardless of international legal technicalities.

The traditional client-patron relationship is under stress as Gulf states recognize that hosting US bases may "import" conflict rather than provide security.
Expected trends in the region include:
- A shift toward more transactional security ties, with states demanding explicit, formal treaties.
- Hedging strategies involving diversified partnerships, such as deepening ties with China or seeking de-escalation with Iran.
- A more fragmented and militarized regional landscape where US influence becomes conditional and increasingly costly.

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