Bolsonarism Persists as a Structural Force in Brazil

• The first round of Brazil's presidential election saw an unexpected surge for the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), which became the largest force in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
• While Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running, his movement has proven it can thrive without him, with his son Flávio Bolsonaro leading the presidential ticket.
• President Lula faced a significant setback, securing fewer votes than in 2022, while many of his key political allies suffered defeats in regional and legislative races.

Institutional Foundations

• Bolsonarism has matured into a resilient political ecosystem supported by evangelical churches, agribusiness, and law enforcement and military apparatuses.
• This "Bible, Beef, and Bullet" alliance holds significant parliamentary influence and strategic positions within the judiciary.
• The movement effectively maintains an "anti-system" rhetoric despite having accumulated vast institutional, economic, and media power.

Geopolitical Implications

• A potential victory for the right in Brazil would align the country with the influence sphere favored by Donald Trump, who views Latin America as a priority region for U.S. commercial and political leverage.
• Lula’s path to victory in the October 25 runoff depends on mobilizing the 21.08% of voters who abstained in the first round; however, regardless of the presidential result, the shift toward a more conservative congress poses a long-term challenge to the left’s agenda.