Bosnia and Herzegovina in Crisis: Milorad Dodik and the Collapse of the Dayton System

• Milorad Dodik, former President of the Republika Srpska (RS), was ousted from office following a criminal conviction for defying federal authorities and the Office of the High Representative (OHR).
• Despite his official removal, Dodik continues to wield power from the shadows, installing loyalists in key positions of the RS and federal presidency.
• The stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina, anchored by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, is facing its greatest threat as Dodik challenges the consociational democracy model.

Downfall and Geopolitics

• Following legislative attempts to ignore the Constitutional Court and OHR decisions, Dodik was prosecuted under a 2023 reform of the Bosnian Penal Code.
• The Trump administration lifted sanctions on Dodik in 2025, breaking the Western consensus and prioritizing energy interests, specifically the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline.

The OHR Succession Crisis

• High Representative Christian Schmidt resigned in May 2026 due to intense pressure from Washington, marking a significant shift in international oversight.
• The U.S. seeks a weaker OHR to diminish European influence in the region, while the EU advocates for a stronger mandate to guide Bosnia toward eventual integration.
• Louis J. Crishock has been appointed as interim High Representative, as the international community remains divided over whether to dissolve the OHR or reinforce it.

The October Election Test

• The general elections in October 2026 serve as a critical test for the survival of the Dayton framework.
• Rising authoritarianism and widespread institutional paralysis have severely damaged public trust, threatening voter turnout and jeopardizing the country’s path toward European Union membership.