- Armenia and Azerbaijan have seen an increase in semi-official civil society exchanges since late 2025.
- Government-sanctioned dialogue persists while independent peace advocates face systemic criminalization and imprisonment.
- Past grassroots peace efforts have been consistently sidelined by state-driven ethnonationalist propaganda.
Recent Diplomatic Exchanges
- Following the August 2025 Washington meeting, frequency of interactions between Yerevan and Baku has risen.
- Azerbaijani participants praise the new "bilateral format" as evidence of genuine interest in dialogue.
- Scholars note that previous peace initiatives failed due to a lack of state support and the suppression of independent discourse rather than a lack of public interest.
Suppression of Dissent
- The current peace process is limited to state-aligned figures, excluding independent voices or those critical of the status quo.
- Government-sponsored persecution of peace advocates remains a significant obstacle to reconciliation.
- Case Study: Scholar Bahruz Samadov was sentenced to 15 years in prison in June 2025 on treason charges, with no evidence provided beyond his academic correspondence with Armenians.
Implications for Future Peace
- True reconciliation requires the participation of independent, critical actors rather than hand-picked participants.
- Given the persistent criminalization of independent activists in Azerbaijan, these official "openness" gestures warrant cautious skepticism.
- Broad social conversation remains impossible while the state determines who is permitted to represent civil society.