Armenia and Azerbaijan: Dialogue or Performance?

• Armenia and Azerbaijan have seen an increase in semi-official civil society exchanges since late 2025.
• Government-sanctioned dialogue persists while independent peace advocates face systemic criminalization and imprisonment.
• Past grassroots peace efforts have been consistently sidelined by state-driven ethnonationalist propaganda.

Recent Diplomatic Exchanges

• Following the August 2025 Washington meeting, frequency of interactions between Yerevan and Baku has risen.
• Azerbaijani participants praise the new "bilateral format" as evidence of genuine interest in dialogue.
• Scholars note that previous peace initiatives failed due to a lack of state support and the suppression of independent discourse rather than a lack of public interest.

Suppression of Dissent

• The current peace process is limited to state-aligned figures, excluding independent voices or those critical of the status quo.
• Government-sponsored persecution of peace advocates remains a significant obstacle to reconciliation.
• Case Study: Scholar Bahruz Samadov was sentenced to 15 years in prison in June 2025 on treason charges, with no evidence provided beyond his academic correspondence with Armenians.

Implications for Future Peace

• True reconciliation requires the participation of independent, critical actors rather than hand-picked participants.
• Given the persistent criminalization of independent activists in Azerbaijan, these official "openness" gestures warrant cautious skepticism.
• Broad social conversation remains impossible while the state determines who is permitted to represent civil society.