The Strategic Potential of Left-Wing Electoral Coalitions

• Data analysis of Spanish general elections (2011–2023) suggests that left-wing fragmentation significantly reduces electoral success, while coalitional strategies could yield majorities.
• The research highlights the strategic importance of capturing 'wasted' votes from smaller left-wing parties to optimize parliamentary representation.

Electoral Modeling and Potential

• Models show that a unified left-wing coalition (IZQ) or a broad coalition including the center-left (IZQ+) would have secured multiple absolute majorities over the analyzed period.
• Right-wing parties consistently benefit from their ability to consolidate votes, whereas the left suffers from a high volume of residual votes (under 3% threshold) that fail to translate into seats.
• Analysis indicates that approximately 600,000 left-wing votes are lost per election cycle, compared to fewer than 40,000 for the right.

The Competitive Plurality Strategy

• The author proposes a 'Rule of Entry Competitive' (REC) system to manage coalition list-building while maintaining ideological diversity.
• Through primary-based list construction, the model balances representation for smaller parties, thereby incentivizing their participation and preventing vote dispersal.
• Statistical outcomes of the proposed REC system show an increase in average parliamentary seats and broader representation for smaller groups like PACMA.

Strategic Implications

• The study argues that political success depends on managing electoral data and game theory rather than just ideological framing.
• Strategic alliances are framed as essential tools for safeguarding social welfare, education, and housing rather than merely a choice for political convenience.